We share our thoughts on Tesla and examine where TSLA’s Amenity Score has tracked since the start of 2017 in comparison to US Equities and the Automobile Manufacturers GICS Sub-Industry
We used the Amenity NLP Platform over the last three quarters to generate extractions regarding CapEx across the E&P sector. The results appear to show that E&P management teams and analysts are more focused on capital restraint, as both event counts and net polarity with regard to CapEx have trended positively since Q2’19. This data points to capital restraint being the first step toward investors taking a more constructive stance on the E&P sector which overall will be a wise path for the industry.
We highlight Wells Fargo (WFC) following the company's 4Q19 earnings call on 14 January 2020. With new CEO Charles Scharf now on the job following Tim Sloan’s departure, bullish long-term investors have been hoping for some resolve. Clarity of commentary is undoubtedly part of the wishlist that went undelivered as Scharf’s first earnings call registered a spike in deception to levels we haven’t seen from WFC since their 3Q17 call. We use Amenity's suite of NLP tools to explore the deception score and deception rate from 2015 to present to understand what level of clarity we can expect from Scharf's tenure.
With the peak of earnings season and Black Friday in the rear view mirror, we spent Cyber Monday using Amenity's suite of NLP tools to check on major retailers that have held earnings calls in the fourth calendar quarter of 2019. We present an analysis of the Retailing GICS Industry Group and confirm a significant bifurcation between small and large retail operations. We then offer deeper context for two widely followed retailers: Target Corporation (TGT) and The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX). Our models uncovered evidence to suggest there may be tariff risks emerging that have not yet been fully digested by markets.
We highlight The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) following the company's 2Q20 earnings call on 22 November 2019. Despite beating EPS estimates, the underlying story remains unsettling. Focusing more on the longer-term, our analysis finds questions about revenue have triggered deceptive answers by management in earnings calls at an increasing rate, which may further erode confidence given the ongoing calls for top-line improvements. This sort of evidence may provide fodder for bear theses and be a honeypot for activists. We narrate the context for our concern and detail deceptive language detected by Amenity’s NLP models.
We pilot a method for using Amenity's NLP solutions to analyze earnings calls for multiple companies and scoring their impact on portfolios of diverse, unevenly distributed holdings. We analyze Warren Buffett's holdings at Berkshire Hathaway as a test case and detail the Oracle of Omaha's Amenity Portfolio Score with attribution at the position level. We find that Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio score is significantly greater than the average company score in our universe (>12k companies, >10 years), which is a function of Buffett favoring companies with positive Amenity Scores.
We’re back on Fed Watch! With the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee expected to announce another rate decision at 2pm on 30 October 2019, markets have baked in more than a 90% likelihood of a 25 basis point cut. We've kept a close eye on regional and diversified banks as earnings season progresses to gauge how lower rates are impacting management commentary as well as their business and economic implications. We share our analysis context ahead of the Fed’s announcement and press conference.
Under Armour and Nike announced recently that their current CEOs are stepping aside and handing over control to the next generation of apparel giant leaders. Both successors have extensive experience in the upper echelons of corporate management. And as a result, we have both incoming CEOs on the proverbial record. We use Amenity’s suite of NLP tools below to analyze and estimate the level of clarity we can expect from Patrik Frisk and John Donahoe when they take the reins.
Going into another week of earnings, we offer a sneak peek into the large cap energy firms. Robust production, softening demand, and fears of a slowing US economy are set against a backdrop of trade tensions and industrial uncertainty that have left energy firms exposed. Amenity’s NLP models examined two early energy reporters: Kinder Morgan (KMI) and Schlumberger (SLB), finding both companies’ net sentiment on fundamentals turning south.
In a follow-up to our Netflix 3Q19 preview, Amenity’s NLP models analyzed what analysts and executive language on the call related to business fundamentals. We observed a modest uptick in Netflix’s sentiment score this quarter, meaning that management spoke more positively about things that matter to business health than last quarter. In our view, we read the Netflix plotline playing out as a pivot to international user and content markets.
Ahead of Netflix's 3Q19 earnings we took a look with the Amenity NLP toolkit to paint an objective picture of the company’s storyboard and found a drop off in positivity around key financial commentary and elevated deception. In their 3Q19 earnings call later today, we expect eyes to be fixated on screens when we get another commercial-free report from the company.
Earnings kick off this week with Financials posting an early first round of results. In a lower interest rate environment, we’re conscious that some banks may be feeling the squeeze on net interest margins. To baseline analyst and investor expectations, we used Amenity’s NLP tools to examine margin-related commentary from the last round of earnings calls for each of the Financials reporting this week.
Third quarter earnings kick off this week with expectations of a single-digit decline in S&P 500 margins after slight contractions over the last two quarters. To set the stage for a busy earnings season, we used Amenity’s NLP models and text analytics tools to look closely at how public companies spoke about margins on earnings calls last quarter.
We follow up on our regional banks white paper, applying our NLP platform to the full set of earnings calls from regional banks this quarter to explore the state of uncertainty before an expected rate cut on September 18th. Our rationale for close scrutiny of regional bank earnings calls holds true since our last publication as we find deceptive commentary indicating there may be underlying uncertainty regarding headwinds to net interest margins.
Under four months until the implementation of the California Consumer Privacy Act, Amenity’s text analytics tools detect a concerning absence of commentary in quarterly earnings calls. Against the backdrop of GDPR’s recent history, we would expect significantly more focus in the Q&A between analysts and management teams. We use our platform to contextualize CCPA in the broader context of global data privacy reform.
We use our NLP platform to analyze regional bank earnings calls and estimate economic uncertainty in advance of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. We uncover elevated deception levels focused on margin topics related to interest rates and net interest income, revealing evasive and euphemistic language patterns.
Snapchat's 2Q19 showed a turnaround moment with beats on user growth and revenue, but a look beyond the headlines through the lens of our text analytics platform shows that while Deception has tapered off SNAP's 1Q18 high, the trend in Cost-Price is worth a closer examination.
Dave & Buster's Q4 earnings appeared positive on the surface, but our text analytics platform revealed that there are two concerns worth exploring. A Deception analysis of the earnings transcript showed a significant increase in language that was clichéd, evasive, vague, and containing euphamisms.
What question are executives most avoiding this year? We performed a Deception analysis with our text analytics platform to pinpoint one topic that drove the most deceptive responses by CEOs and CFOs in 2019 earnings calls.
As we close on Q1, our latest Forecast Index update reveals forward-looking commentary continues to improve, US consumer sentiment is mixed but skews positive, Juniper is the outlier with caution on 5G, plus wage and earnings pressures continue to make their presence felt.
While Micron's 2Q earnings reveal weakness, a closer look with our text analytics platform shows that Micron may have bottomed out, and could be poised for a resurgance in Cloud orders when comparing their latest sentiment with key players.
As expected FedEx's FYQ3 earnings disappointed with the root cause being international and supply chain challenges. We used our text analytics platform to explore the issues as well as uncovered a new development around China that bears watching.
Smartsheet's Q4 earnings came in as expected from our earlier analysis, however our text analytics platform picked up on some interesting management commentary around net expansion rate that could lead to some trouble down the road. Is this a trap door or is Smartsheet managing expectations?
We preview FedEx's FYQ3 earnings, using our text analytics platform to revisit Europe macro and supply chain challenges that were uncovered as part of our earlier FedEx assessment on December 2018. Our prognosis for Tuesday's earnings? Continued Europe issues and Amazon risk.
The latest IRS weekly tax return data give us the opportunity to track and compare earnings sentiment related to this year's tax refunds. This week shows refunds continue to stabilize which means they aren't the crushing headwind for Specialty Retail, so what is? Our analysis uncovers the real headwinds.
In December we used our text analytics platform to highlight Smartsheet (SMAR) as our top pick for 2019. Smartsheet has not disappointed, so we revisit our pick and review their latest earnings sentiment to determine if Smartsheet can close out the year atop the Technology sector.
The latest IRS weekly tax return data give us the opportunity to track and compare earnings sentiment related to this year's tax refunds. Our text analytics platform shows continued caution from retailers regarding refunds, but how much of that is truly refund related?
Kroger's 4Q earnings reveal the grocer is reeling from attacks to its core business and digital expansion. Our previous Grocery sector analysis highlighted Kroger as particularly vulnerable to these threats. Today we use our text analytics platform to further explore these takeaways in the latest earnings sentiment.
With the majority of companies reporting Q1 earnings next month, we use our text analytics platform to uncover areas of strength and weakness for investors to explore based on the latest management commentary from this quarter's earnings calls.
As the IRS reports weekly tax return data we use our text analytics platform to track and compare earnings sentiment related to this year's tax refunds. With many companies relying on consumers spending their tax refund checks we will keep a close eye on sentiment vs the weekly IRS data.
Our analysis of Lowe's 4Q earnings shows many similarities with Home Depot's 4Q, but one key difference was revenue. Home Depot blamed their weak 4Q on weather while Lowe's had no problems and has momentum heading to the Spring.
In Home Depot's 4Q earnings call our text analytics platform identifies what appears to be the makings of future supply chain constraints masked as weather issues, as well as the potential of a fallout from this year's smaller and delayed tax refunds. In total we uncover 5 key takeaways.
What led to the big drop in Stamps.com? We used our NLP model to analyze the latest 10-Q SEC filing from Stamps.com and applied our Deception Analysis to uncover the chain of events that led to the company's significant guidance shortfall.
Our weekly Forecast Index update reveals forward-looking commentary continues to improve, Europe joins China on growth concerns, and companies see less margin pressure from raw material inflation.
We use our text analytics platform to preview next week's earnings call for Home Depot and Lowe's. Our analysis revealed key themes based on sentiment from their previous earnings, the home improvement ecosystem, and the Retail sector which investores should look for in next week's call.
The latest 13-F SEC filing from Berkshire Hathaway indicated the company had sold its $2.1B holding in Oracle which was only established the previous quarter. For answers we used our text analytics platform to look back at the last two earnings call transcripts, and uncovered one hot button issue that may be the culprit.
We measure what refund impacts the 2018 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act might have on consumer spending by using our NLP platform to review earnings from the last tax refund delay of 2017. A query of earnings sentiment featuring the phrase "tax refund delay" reveals which companies might also be impacted in 1Q 2019.
Emerson's FY1Q revenue missed consensus estimates, but our NLP analysis uncovered a clear uptick on China, and a positive skew in forward-looking commentary which mirros similar sentiment in the Industrials sector. The data suggests China could be improving overall.
Our weekly Forecast Index update reveals forward-looking commentary improving from 12-month lows, China reaches status quo, and Industrials continue to provide positives.
GE's 4Q earnings was viewed positively by the market, but our text analytics of the earnings sentiment still shows a lack of answers regarding their troubled Power division, which still leaves the company weak relative to its industrial peers.
Amenity Analytics offers an innovative new model to text mining, combining machine learning with a rules-based approach. While rule composition serves as the foundation for our NLP technology, our solution employs full parsing; reducing the number of rules needed and is a profound improvement upon traditional rules-based models.
We analyze NVIDIA's negative pre-earnings press release and explore the commentary. First we find the expected China impact, but also we uncover something we did not know which was data center warnings which echoes an earlier warning from Intel.
Our weekly Forecast Index update reveals forward-looking commentary reaching 12-month lows, but a glimmer of hope remains in certain Industrial and Healthcare markets.
MedTech plays the role of outlier regarding China and Trade as Waters Corp's earnings call was bullish on both. Our earlier analysis on JP Morgan's Healthcare Conference identified MedTech as an industry that was bullish on China.
We introduce our U.S. corporate sentiment tracker that focuses on forward-looking commentary from quarterly earnings calls. What sets index apart from others is our text analytics allows us to capture all significant financial sentiment. We explore three key takeaways from the data.
As the 2019 flu season kicks into gear, we leveraged Viewer's NLP platform in conjunction with weekly CDC data to provide critical context to corporate sentiment among healthcare providers. This is a great example of how you can use text analytics to enhance existing data sets to draw meaningful insights.
Macy's disappointed with its 4Q18 sales update which reverberated throughout the Retail sector. We used our text analytics platform to go through Macy's press release and the recent earnings from key players to come up with two key takeaways which should be no surprise to our faithful readers.
JP Morgan is holding its Healthcare conference this week. We didn't attend, but we leveraged the Amenity Viewer platform to apply our text analytics on the company presentation transcripts and extract insights. See for yourself how using Viewer means never missing an important call or conference.
Amazon is going full bore at the Grocery sector and delivery will be the battlefield. For a sector always dealing with margin pressure how will competitors in this space fare? For answers we leverage the power of our text analytics to quickly perform analysis at scale with our Query Insights feature to extract earnings sentiment from the phrase "delivery growth."
We apply our text analytics model to analyze Apple's January 2nd investor letter to help address four specific questions that go beyond the headlines that everyone already knows. How bad was it? Does our "Deception" Analysis reveal anything? Where else to look for China fallout? How does Apple's release compare to comments in the smartphone ecosystem? Find out in our article.
While everyone is providing 2019 outlooks and forward-looking takes we review our top 4 insights from Q4 2018 based on our readership. Using our text analytics modeling we uncovered some interesting insights that would've been extremely difficult for professionals to determine with traditional analysis. What did our readers uncover? Read on to find out.
Our ongoing coverage of Supply Chain risk reverberated with FedEx's disappointing earnings call. Is FedEx patient zero in the Supply Chain risk? We use Viewer and its Query Insights feature to perform sentiment analysis across sectors to identify 5 key takeaways from the FedEx results.
We ran a "Deception" analysis on earnings call transcripts using Amenity Viewer's text analytics model to find companies where fundamentals appear solid, but may have cracks beneath the surface. Our Deception analysis uncovered Merck, where the company appeared unwilling to endorse some bullish analyst projections.
Heading into 2019 we take a positive outlook on the market by using Viewer to perform text analytics at a market level scale which identified 5 companies that could ride positive momentum into the new year.
With a U.S. – China trade war looming, we use Viewer and its Query Insights feature to explore what companies or sectors are at risk based on their earnings sentiment around positive expectations and trade war risk.
We use Viewer and its Query Insights feature to highlight Smartsheet (SMAR), a recent IPO bucking the trend in the Technology sector. We dive into the sentiment to understand if SMAR is a one-off or a sign of things to come for Tech.
Based on Viewer's earnings sentiment analysis in the Retail sector, we recently warned of supply chain issues impacting Retail in Q4. Is Chico’s the first among many in the sector to drop, or is it an outlier given it’s niche status?
We use Viewer and its Query Insights feature to analyze negative earnings sentiment across 11 companies in the retail/consumer space. The outcome? A negative outlook for the retail sector this holiday season.
The easy answer behind KORS double digit drop on Nov. 7 is that the company missed its revenue estimates, but we used Viewer to go beyond the operating performance and pull 3 insights that might have easily been missed by analysts not using natural language processing.
Lowe's reports earnings on Nov. 20. We use Viewer to prepare for their earnings call, looking at key industry players and Home Depot's earnings transcript to share two key insights investors should expect to uncover.
NVIDIA shares were down 20% following a disappointing quarter and guidance. We use Viewer to pull important commentary from their earnings call as well as take a look at the previous quarter's transcript to show what most analysts might have missed.
Recent pricing pressure at California utility PG&E allows us to preview how Viewer's NLP model is not only applicable to earnings call transcripts, but also SEC filings analysis. A key feature when transcripts lack direct information to significant events.
Using Viewer's NLP model we explore diverging sentiment between gaming companies, Ceaser's and MGM Resorts to get to the "why" behind the sentiment. Read the restults to see how you can use Viewer to pull meaningful insights from earnings transcripts quickly and accurately.
Facebook impressed last week with its highest scoring earings call of the year on 10/30/18. We use Viewer to gather insights on past and present earnings sentiment to explore two questions: what drove the positive outcome and is this a sustainable trend?
Viewer quickly uncovers 3 key insights from Apple's earnings call. See how Amenity Viewer looks at the recent earnings transcripts to derive the underlying issues behind the negativity and potential pitfalls that lie ahead.
We explore Colgate-Palmolive's October earnings call to reveal some key insights behind their disappointing earnings call that were easily obtained using Viewer.
The unoffical start to earnings season provides us with the opportunity to analyze BlackRock's earnings calls with Amenity Viewer.
Amenity Viewer analyzes Delta's previous earnings call transcripts to set the stage for Delta's upcoming earnings call. We explore two key themes that dominated 2Q earnings call for Delta and the industry as a whole: Fuel costs and Demand.
We used Amenity Viewer to analyze the disappointing International Motor Speedway Corp (ISCA) earnings calls and look for insights related to these key questions: Did the company kitchen sink the guide? Or is this jsut the first shoe to drop?
We put the Amenity Viewer to work in preparing for tonight’s Nike earnings call, quickly drilling into the key drivers from earnings calls among competitors and channel partners. We highlight key themes and data points to watch.
We conducted a brief analysis of the disappointing UNFI earnings call through the lens of the Viewer. Additionally, we invite you to our weekly Webex on September 25, 11:00 ET (link), for both new and experienced Viewer users.
Oracle has been in the news this week after the surprising departure of senior technology executive Thomas Kurian, caused by what is reportedly a disagreement over Oracle's strategy in Cloud. This might put a brighter spotlight on the 9/17 Oracle earnings call, so in preparation we took a deeper look through the Amenity Viewer
Keep up to date with our analyses and how we're making changes.